New to Space Weather?

The short version, no jargon.

If terms like "Kp" or "CME" mean nothing to you, this is the two-minute version of what's actually happening above your head.

How the aurora actually forms

The sun constantly streams charged particles out into space, called the solar wind. When those particles reach Earth, our planet's own magnetic field funnels them down toward the poles, where they collide with oxygen and nitrogen in the atmosphere and make them glow. That glow is the aurora.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

Sometimes the sun erupts and hurls an enormous cloud of magnetized plasma out into space. If that cloud happens to be aimed at Earth, it slams into our magnetic field roughly a day or two later, sharply increasing the number of particles funneling toward the poles, and a much stronger, more widespread aurora.

Coronal holes

A coronal hole is a cooler, darker patch in the Sun's outer atmosphere, called the corona, where the magnetic field opens up and lets a steady stream of fast solar wind escape continuously. Unlike a CME's single burst, these streams can affect Earth for several days, and often repeat roughly every 27 days as the sun rotates.

What "Kp" actually means

Kp is just a simple 0–9 scale for how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is right now. Low numbers (0–2) mean quiet, calm conditions, and the aurora usually stays confined near the poles. High numbers (5 and up) mean a geomagnetic storm is underway, and the aurora can be seen much farther from the poles than usual.

How It Works

Two forecasts. One honest answer.

Seeing the aurora requires enhanced geomagnetic activity and clear sky overhead at your location, so we make sure to check both forecasts.

01

Enter your zip or postal code

That's it, no account needed to check tonight.

02

We combine two forecasts

Space weather and cloud cover, checked together instead of separately, the way every other aurora app leaves you to do yourself.

03

See your real chance at aurora visibility tonight

One percentage, not a chart full of numbers you'd have to interpret on your own.

Sample Reading · Omaha, NE

Tonight's odds, broken down

Every confidence score is built from two independent readings so you can see exactly why tonight looks good, or doesn't.

Aurora overhead probabilityKp 6.7, Strong
Clear sky window (10pm–2am)61% clear
Combined confidence44%
CME Forecasts

What's headed our way, and how sure we are

Analysts at NASA's Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M SWAO) track coronal mass ejections and model whether each one is headed for Earth. The tables below represent potential Earth-directed events that could enhance geomagnetic activity and lead to stronger northern lights. These are predictions, not certainties: CMEs regularly arrive early, arrive late, arrive weak, or miss Earth entirely. A CME that hasn't arrived yet simply doesn't move the needle as the Kp stays at background levels.

Pricing

Free to check. Worth paying for when it matters.

Free
$0
  • Global magnetic-latitude map
  • Naked-eye + camera confidence score
  • Current Kp index and weather conditions
  • Basic zip lookup
  • Community Auroral Sightings map widget
Current Plan
Chaser Pro
$9.99/mo
  • Everything in Aurora+
  • Multi-location watchlist (up to 5 locations) with 3-day outlook for each
  • Historical geomagnetic storm outlook
  • 24 hour solar wind viewer graph from NOAA SOLAR-1 satellite
  • Access to retro-styled Chaser Chatroom
  • And other exclusive features
Upgrade
Tourism / Media
Custom
  • White-label map widget, custom-branded to match your site
  • Raw data feed / API access
  • Custom-branded subdomain (e.g. aurora.yourlodge.com)
  • Guest wake-up alerts — automatically notify your front desk or guests the moment odds spike overnight
  • Multi-property support for lodge groups and tour operators
  • Priority support and a dedicated onboarding call
  • For lodges, tours, newsrooms
Contact Us
Never Miss a Major Storm

One email when it actually matters.

No daily digest, no spam, just a heads-up when a significant CME is inbound. Unsubscribe anytime.

Where the Data Comes From

Public science data, made personal.

No proprietary weather models, just the same government sources scientists use, translated into one plain-language answer.

Terrestrial Weather
NOAA National Weather Service
Space Weather
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center NASA CCMC CME Scoreboard, curated by NASA M2M Space Weather Analysis Office
Frequently Asked Questions

Before you plan your night around this.

How accurate is the aurora forecast?

It's a probability, not a guarantee. Geomagnetic storm forecasts depend on modeled coronal mass ejections that can arrive late, weaker than predicted, or miss Earth entirely. The confidence score reflects that uncertainty rather than hiding it.

What's the difference between naked-eye and camera visibility?

Naked-eye visibility means the aurora should be visible to the eye. Camera-only visibility means a long-exposure camera can pick up aurora activity, usually as a faint reddish or greenish glow, even when it isn't visible to the eye, and it extends noticeably farther from the pole than naked-eye visibility does.

Why does location matter more than just the Kp index?

Aurora visibility tracks magnetic latitude, not straight geographic latitude, and the magnetic pole is offset from the geographic pole toward northern Canada. That's why, at the same Kp index, aurora is visible farther south over North America than over Europe at a similar geographic latitude.

What happens if the predicted CME doesn't arrive?

The Kp index simply stays at background levels and the elevated forecast quietly doesn't happen. That's a normal outcome of CME forecasting, not an error, which is why confirmed current Kp and CME-dependent outlook are always shown separately.

Does this work outside the United States?

Yes. Geomagnetic forecasting is global. Cloud forecasts use the National Weather Service inside the United States and a global weather source everywhere else, including Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the UK.

Your aurora visibility forecast card