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Northern Lights Forecast

Northern Lights Tonight in Chatham, Ontario

Live visibility odds for Chatham, combining the current geomagnetic Kp index with real local cloud cover, not just one or the other.

Tonight's chance of seeing aurora
3%
Unlikely
LocationChatham, Ontario
Geomagnetic Forecast · NOAA / NASA
Magnetic latitude51.6°
Confirmed Kp right nowKp 2.3
Weather Forecast · Open-Meteo
Clear-sky estimate100% clear skies
For entertainment purposes only, not a guarantee of visibility. Don't plan travel or spending around this number alone.

What Kp do you need in Chatham?

Naked eye
Kp 7.5
One or two nights in a typical year
Camera, long exposure
Kp 3.5
Several nights most months
Magnetic latitude
51.6°
Not the same as the 42.4° on a map — this is what actually decides it

Those frequencies are how often the geomagnetic threshold itself is reached, before weather. Cloud cover, moonlight and local light pollution all cut into it, which is why the live score at the top of this page multiplies the geomagnetic odds by tonight's actual sky over Chatham.

Which way to look from Chatham

Face north. From Chatham the auroral oval sits well to the north, so activity shows up as a glow low on the northern horizon rather than overhead — which means a clear, unobstructed northern view matters more here than total darkness does.

Best time of year

Aurora season in Chatham runs from late August through April, for the simple reason that you need genuine darkness and summer nights are too short and too bright. Activity clusters around the equinoxes — late September and late March are statistically the most active weeks of the year, an effect of how Earth's magnetic field lines up with the solar wind at those points in the orbit.

Will I see the aurora in Chatham tonight?

Right now, Chatham has a 3% chance based on tonight's real conditions: Kp 2.3 and 100% clear skies. Unlikely. This updates live, so check back closer to dark for the most accurate read, especially if the sky is currently cloudy where you are.

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A good Kp forecast isn't the whole story. See what else actually determines whether you'll see it →

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